BITCOIN & ALTCOIN DUMP: Time to Get Serious (Warning)!!! - Bitcoin News Today, Ethereum & Altcoins

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Crypto Market Analysis by Josh

Josh's overall market evaluation is predominantly bearish in the short term, influenced by the continued decline in the US stock market. He notes that this correlation typically translates to negative pressure on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. While acknowledging potential short-term bounces, his primary focus remains on the larger bearish trend, particularly for Bitcoin, which is still influenced by significant bearish divergences on higher timeframes. He emphasizes the importance of confirmed price action to validate any potential moves.

Key Points and Main Topics Discussed:

• Bitcoin (BTC):
  • Currently testing crucial support around $85,000 - $86,000 on the daily timeframe.
  • Experienced a harsh rejection and failed to break back above the short-term ascending support line, now near $89,000.
  • The 6-hour chart shows a bearish breakdown from an ascending triangle pattern, with a technical target of $77,000 - $78,000.
  • Immediate support at $85,000 - $86,000 is critical; a confirmed daily candle close below this level would likely lead to a drop towards $80,000 - $81,000, and potentially $76,000 if it breaks below $80,000.
  • Significant liquidity is building around $90,800 to $91,100, suggesting a potential short-term liquidity grab attempt that failed. Larger liquidity is still noted around $70,000.
  • Bitcoin dominance is showing signs of bullish momentum, confirming a higher low and breaking previous highs on the daily timeframe. This suggests Bitcoin is outperforming many major altcoins on average.
  • Longer-term, the weekly chart still shows a red Super Trend indicator and an active, un-invalidated massive bearish divergence.
• Ethereum (ETH):
  • Has broken below the previous support level of $3,000 - $3,100, which is now acting as resistance.
  • The price recently retested this resistance zone and saw a rejection.
  • The next significant support level to watch is between $2,750 - $2,800. A break below this could target $2,600 - $2,650.
  • A potential short-term bullish divergence is forming on the 3-hour chart, with higher lows on the RSI while the price is forming lower lows (pending confirmation of the candle close below previous lows). If confirmed, this could lead to a short-term relief bounce or sideways consolidation, not a trend reversal.
  • Ethereum is expected to follow Bitcoin's price action, and with Bitcoin dominance showing bullish momentum, altcoins are likely to underperform Bitcoin on average.
• Solana (SOL):
  • Currently testing a crucial support level between $124 - $128.
  • A confirmed daily candle close below $124, especially without reclaiming it, could lead to a drop towards $100 - $105. A minor support might be found around $115.
  • A potential bullish divergence is forming on the daily chart, with possible lower lows in price (candle closes pending confirmation) while the RSI is forming higher lows.
• XRP:
  • On the weekly timeframe, XRP is still facing a massive bearish divergence and is testing its final significant support area between $1.80 - $2.00.
  • A confirmed weekly candle close below $1.80 would be a strong bearish signal, potentially leading to a significant crash towards $1.60, then $1.30 - $1.40, and possibly lower if support at $1.80 fails.
  • On the daily chart, there is a shorter-term bullish divergence with confirmed lower lows in price (candle closes) and higher lows on the RSI. However, the price is currently at the invalidation point, requiring more confirmation (1-2 green candle closes) for confidence.
  • Even if the short-term bullish divergence plays out, it is expected to be a relief or consolidation within the larger multi-month bearish trend indicated by the weekly divergence.
  • Resistance is expected between $2.00 - $2.50.
• Chainlink (LINK):
  • Following the general market trend, Chainlink is experiencing a short-term pullback.
  • It is testing an important support level around $12 - $12.20.
  • A possible bullish divergence is forming, but it is not confirmed as a lower low in price has not yet been established.
  • Resistance is expected between $13.30 - $13.40.
  • A potential head and shoulders pattern is forming, which, if confirmed by a break below $12, would activate a further bearish price target.
• US Stock Market:
  • The S&P 500 is in a short-term correction with a bearish divergence on the 1-hour timeframe, indicating distribution and weakness.
  • This stock market weakness is negatively impacting Bitcoin and crypto due to their high correlation.

Important Insights:

• Market Sentiment: The overall market sentiment is bearish in the short term, driven by the stock market's downturn.
• Confirmation is Paramount: Josh consistently emphasizes the need for confirmed price action (candle closes) to validate technical signals and patterns before making trading decisions.
• Timeframe Discrepancy: Short-term bullish signals (like divergences) can occur within larger, ongoing bearish trends, providing temporary relief rather than trend reversals.
• Bitcoin Dominance Shift: The recent bullish momentum in Bitcoin dominance suggests that Bitcoin is holding up better than most altcoins, indicating that altcoin performance will likely lag behind Bitcoin's movements.
• Risk Management: Josh advises caution, particularly against entering long positions in the current bearish environment and suggests waiting for clear signals or breakdowns for shorting opportunities.

Trading Opportunities and Positions:

• Bitcoin (BTC) Shorting Opportunity:
  • Josh is considering short positions. He suggests that a break below $85,000 - $86,000 would be a potential entry point for a short position, targeting $80,000 - $81,000 and potentially $76,000.
  • He explicitly advises against entering a short position directly at support ($85,000 - $86,000) due to the risk of a bounce.
  • He mentions that if one had entered a short position during the recent retest of the rejected $89,000 level, they would potentially be in profit.
• Ethereum (ETH) Accumulation:
  • While the short-term trend is bearish, the potential confirmation of a bullish divergence on the 3-hour chart could offer a short-term relief bounce. Josh suggests that this price action, coupled with the reset RSI, *could* present an opportunity to accumulate Ethereum, but this is contingent on the divergence confirming.
• Altcoins:
  • With Bitcoin dominance showing bullish momentum and Bitcoin itself showing weakness, altcoins are expected to underperform on average.
  • Josh mentions that short positions can be profitable even in a bearish altcoin market, suggesting a strategy of shorting bearish-looking altcoins.

What's New Today and Changes from Previous Summaries:

• Overall Tone Shift: The tone has become more explicitly bearish in the short term compared to the previous videos, which were cautiously neutral to slightly bearish. The current video emphasizes the "harsh rejection" and "failure to break out" for Bitcoin, reinforcing a negative outlook.
• Bitcoin Breakdown Confirmation: The breakdown below the short-term ascending support line on the 6-hour chart is now a confirmed event, and the ascending triangle pattern has activated its bearish target, which is a significant development.
• Bitcoin Dominance Shift: A notable change is the observation of bullish momentum in Bitcoin dominance, a new development that indicates Bitcoin is outperforming altcoins. This contradicts the previous neutral stance on dominance and adds to the bearish outlook for altcoins.
• Ethereum's Bullish Divergence: A new potential bullish divergence has emerged on the 3-hour chart for Ethereum, offering a glimmer of short-term hope, although it requires further confirmation. This is a new bullish signal to monitor, unlike the previous discussions which focused on breakdowns.
• Solana's Critical Juncture: Solana is now explicitly testing its crucial support at $124, with the risk of a significant drop to