Market Evaluation by Josh
Josh's overall evaluation of the market, particularly for cryptocurrencies, is cautiously optimistic in the short term, while acknowledging a larger bearish trend still in play on higher time frames. He highlights several bullish divergences and liquidity targets that suggest a potential for a "bullish relief" or bounce in the coming days and weeks. However, he stresses the importance of understanding the difference between short-term signals and the larger, multi-month trends, where bearish influences still exist.
Key Points and Main Topics Discussed
Overall Market Sentiment
- The US stock market is showing a bullish open, which is generally positive for the crypto market in the short term.
- The prevailing sentiment for Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies is a potential "bullish relief" in the short to medium term, driven by technical indicators.
- Larger, multi-month bearish trends are still present, and the end of these trends has not yet been confirmed.
Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis
- Weekly Time Frame: The super trend indicator is red, indicating a larger bearish trend. A massive bearish divergence is still active, suggesting a lack of bullish momentum on this time frame.
- 3-Day Time Frame: A bullish divergence has been confirmed, with lower lows in price and higher lows in the RSI. This is a positive signal for a potential bullish relief.
- Daily Time Frame: Bitcoin is bouncing from a Fibonacci support level between $85,000 and $86,000. Resistance is expected between $92,000 and $94,000.
- Imminent Short Term (6-hour): Bitcoin is testing an ascending line (acting as resistance) at approximately $90,000. A move beyond $90,000 is likely, with a retest of the $92,000-$94,000 resistance area anticipated.
- Liquidity: Significant liquidity is building just above the current price of Bitcoin, particularly around $91,000 ($90.8K to $91.1K), acting as a magnet for price.
- Trading Opportunity/Position: Josh has been predicting a slight bullish move towards liquidity levels, which is playing out as predicted.
Ethereum (ETH) Analysis
- Daily Time Frame: ETH is potentially breaking out above a Fibonacci level around $3,040 ($3,000-$3.1K). Breaking above $3.1K could lead to a move towards $3.2K-$3.25K, with further resistance at $3.4K.
- The price structure is showing signs of changing from lower highs and lower lows to higher lows, indicating a potential shift in the larger trend. Breaking above $3,500 would be extremely bullish.
- 3-Hour Time Frame: A shorter-term bullish divergence has perfectly played out as predicted, leading to a bullish relief and sideways price action.
- Resistance is currently around $3,060, with the next short-term resistance at $3,150.
- The 3-hour ETH RSI is approaching overbought territory, suggesting a potential cool-off period soon, but still indicating some room to the upside in the immediate short term.
XRP Analysis
- Weekly Time Frame: A massive bearish divergence is still technically active and influencing larger time frames, despite short-term bullish price action.
- Significant support is at approximately $0.180. If this level breaks, much lower prices are possible on larger time frames.
- Daily Time Frame: A confirmed smaller bullish divergence suggests a likely bullish relief or sideways consolidation over the next few days to one or two weeks.
- Immediate resistance is around $0.195. The next major resistance is between $0.200 and $0.250, with further resistance at $0.215-$0.220 and significant resistance near $0.227-$0.228.
- The larger bearish trend has not yet been confirmed as over, with lower highs and lower lows still forming.
Solana (SOL) Analysis
- SOL is following the market trend with a shorter-term bullish relief due to a confirmed bullish divergence (lower lows in price, higher lows in RSI).
- The expected outcome is a slight bullish relief or sideways price action over the next few days to one or two weeks.
- Immediate support is at $124, which has been retested and is now holding. Further support exists between $115 and $117 if $124 breaks.
- Resistance is expected around $130, with the next significant resistance between $143 and $147.
Chainlink (LINK) Analysis
- The bigger picture for LINK is not yet clear, but the short-term situation shows a confirmed shorter-term bullish divergence.
- Similar to other altcoins, a slight bullish relief or sideways consolidation is expected over the next few days to one or two weeks.
- The next massive resistance is around $13.30-$13.50.
- A potential head and shoulders pattern is forming but not yet confirmed. Breaking and holding above $13.50 would invalidate this pattern and target the next resistance at around $14.90-$15.00.
Bitcoin Dominance
- Bitcoin dominance is continuing a slight bullish trend in the short term, but without significant bullish momentum.
- Altcoins are expected to show similar price action to Bitcoin, potentially slightly underperforming on average.
Important Insights
- Time Frame Differentiation: It is crucial to understand the difference between short-term signals (e.g., bullish divergence on smaller time frames) and larger, multi-month trends (e.g., bearish divergence on weekly charts).
- Liquidity as a Magnet: Areas of high liquidity can act as strong pull factors for price movements.
- Bullish Divergence Outcomes: Confirmed bullish divergences typically lead to a bullish relief or sideways consolidation.
- Trend Change Signals: For larger trends, a change is indicated by breaking previous highs and forming higher highs and higher lows.
Alerts to be Aware Of
- BTCUSDT;{{price}} > 90000;Josh: Testing resistance line. Move beyond 90000 likely.
- BTCUSDT;{{price}} > 92000;Josh: Approaching significant resistance zone. Expect struggle or rejection.
- BTCUSDT;{{price}} < 86000;Josh: Potential pullback to Fibonacci support at 85-86K.
- ETHUSDT;{{price}} > 3100;Josh: Breakout above 3.1K could lead to move towards 3.2K-3.25K.
- ETHUSDT;{{price}} > 3000;Josh: Broken above short-term resistance at 3000. Next target 3060.
- XRPUSDT;{{price}} > 0.200;Josh: Next major resistance zone between 0.200 and 0.250.
- XRPUSDT;{{price}} < 0.180;Josh: Significant support at 0.180. Break below could lead to much lower prices.
- SOLUSDT;{{price}} > 124;Josh: Reclaimed and holding 124 as support.
- SOLUSDT;{{price}} > 130;Josh: Potential resistance at 130. Next significant resistance 143-147.
- LINKUSDT;{{price}} > 13.30;Josh: Approaching massive resistance zone around 13.30-13.50.
- LINKUSDT;{{price}} > 13.50;Josh: Breakout above 13.50 invalidates head and shoulders pattern, targets 14.90-15.00.