Market Evaluation by Josh
Josh's overall evaluation of the market suggests a mixed short-term outlook with a dominant larger-term bearish trend. While Bitcoin has hit a short-term price target and shown some bullish structure, the weekly and 3-day charts still indicate potential for larger corrections. Short-term bullish relief or choppy sideways action is expected to continue for a period, but significant resistance levels need to be watched. Altcoins are expected to largely follow Bitcoin's lead due to neutral Bitcoin dominance. Some altcoins like Ethereum are showing short-term bearish divergences, while Solana and XRP are playing out bullish divergences on daily timeframes, indicating potential for short-term upside or consolidation.
Key Points and Main Topics Discussed
- Bitcoin's Short-Term Price Action: Bitcoin recently hit a predicted price target, wiping out liquidity above. However, significant liquidity is building below the current price, suggesting potential for a cool-off. The short-term price structure is technically bullish with higher lows and higher highs.
- Larger Timeframe Bitcoin Analysis: The weekly super trend indicator remains in the red, indicating a larger correction or bearish market. A massive bearish divergence is still active on the weekly chart. The 3-day chart shows a smaller bullish divergence, supporting the expectation of short-term bullish relief or sideways action over days or weeks.
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Bitcoin Support and Resistance Levels:
- Support is currently seen around $85,000 to $86,000.
- Resistance is identified between $92,000 to $94,000.
- A breakout above $89.9K was observed but lost relevance.
- Liquidity was wiped out around $91,000.
- New liquidity is building around $92,000 to $92.1K.
- Most significant liquidity is building below, between $86.5K to $86.7K.
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Ethereum Analysis:
- Previous resistance around $3,000 to $3,100 is now expected to act as support.
- Next resistance areas are around $3,200 to $3,250, and then closer to $3,400.
- A new short-term bearish divergence has been confirmed on smaller timeframes (3-hour), suggesting a potential cool-off or choppy sideways action in the immediate hours or days.
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Solana Analysis:
- The bullish divergence on the daily timeframe continues to play out as predicted, suggesting continued bullish relief or choppy sideways action.
- Significant resistance is expected between $143 to $147.
- Support is anticipated around $125 and potentially $130 to $131.
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XRP Analysis:
- A massive bearish divergence remains unvalidated on the weekly chart, indicating the larger trend is still concerning.
- However, a smaller bullish divergence is actively playing out on the daily chart, suggesting short-term bullish relief or choppy sideways action.
- Support is expected around $2.05 to $2.25 if a daily candle closes above this level.
- Significant support also exists at $1.80.
- Resistance is anticipated between $2.15 to $2.20.
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Chainlink Analysis:
- The larger trend on the daily timeframe is not yet clear, but a bullish divergence is playing out in the short term, leading to bullish relief or choppy sideways action.
- Current resistance is at $13.30 to $13.50, where struggle and potential rejection are expected.
- A confirmed breakout above $13.50 could flip this into support, with the next major resistance at $14.70 to $15.
- If a breakout fails, support is expected at $12.70 to $12.80.
- Bitcoin Dominance: Bitcoin dominance is looking very neutral and has been moving sideways as expected, implying that most major altcoins will likely perform similarly to Bitcoin.
Important Insights
- The market is characterized by a larger bearish trend, but short-term bullish divergences are providing opportunities for relief or consolidation.
- Liquidity levels are a key factor in predicting short-term price movements, especially for Bitcoin.
- It's crucial to consider multiple signals and timeframes for a comprehensive market view, rather than relying on a single indicator.
- Short-term bullish divergences on daily charts for altcoins like Solana, XRP, and Chainlink suggest potential for upside or sideways movement, but the larger weekly picture for XRP and Chainlink still shows bearish potential.
- Ethereum's short-term bearish divergence signals a potential for a price cool-off in the immediate future.
Trading Opportunities and Positions
- Bitcoin: Josh predicted a move up towards $91,000, which was accurately played out. Currently, he expects potential for a retest of resistance between $92,000 to $94,000.
- Ethereum: Identified support at $3,000-$3,100 and resistance at $3,200-$3,250, and $3,400. The short-term bearish divergence suggests a potential pullback or sideways action.
- Solana: Continues to expect bullish relief or sideways action due to bullish divergence, with resistance at $143-$147 and support at $125 and $130-$131.
- XRP: Short-term bullish relief or sideways action is expected due to daily bullish divergence, with support at $2.05-$2.25 (if confirmed breakout) and $1.80, and resistance at $2.15-$2.20.
- Chainlink: Expecting short-term bullish relief or sideways action, with current struggle at resistance $13.30-$13.50. A breakout above $13.50 could lead to upside towards $14.70-$15, while failure could lead to support at $12.70-$12.80.
Alerts to Be Aware Of
- BTCUSDT;{{price}} > 91000;Josh: Liquidity wiped out around 91K. Watch for further upside potential towards 92K-94K resistance.
- BTCUSDT;{{price}} < 86700;Josh: Significant liquidity building below 86.5K-86.7K. Watch for potential downside if support breaks.
- ETHUSDT;{{price}} < 3100;Josh: Previous resistance now support around 3K-3.1K. Watch for bounce.
- ETHUSDT;{{price}} > 3250;Josh: Next resistance area for Ethereum. Watch for struggle.
- SOLUSDT;{{price}} > 143;Josh: Significant resistance for Solana between 143-147. Watch for potential rejection.
- SOLUSDT;{{price}} < 131;Josh: Short-term support for Solana around 130-131. Watch for bounce.
- XRPUSDT;{{price}} > 2.25;Josh: Potential support if daily candle closes above 2.05-2.25. Next resistance around 2.15-2.20.
- XRPUSDT;{{price}} < 1.80;Josh: Major support for XRP at $1.80. Watch for potential bounce if price reaches this level.
- LINKUSDT;{{price}} > 1350;Josh: Breakout above 13.30-13.50 resistance for Chainlink. Next target around 14.70-15.
- LINKUSDT;{{price}} < 1280;Josh: Support for Chainlink around 12.70-12.80 if breakout fails.