BITCOIN CRASH: PRICE TARGETS HIT (this is next)!!!! - Bitcoin News Today, Ethereum & Altcoins

📝 Video Summary

Overall Market Evaluation by Josh

Josh presents a predominantly bearish outlook for the overall crypto market, emphasizing the repetition of historical patterns and the presence of significant bearish divergences on multiple timeframes. He highlights the impact of Bitcoin ETF outflows as a contributing factor to recent sell pressure. While acknowledging potential short-term relief bounces, his longer-term view suggests continued downside pressure. He also notes that altcoins are generally underperforming Bitcoin and are unlikely to experience an "altcoin season" in the current market conditions.

Key Points and Main Topics Discussed:

Bitcoin (BTC):
- ETF Outflows: Significant net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, particularly from BlackRock, are creating sell pressure. This is attributed to investors pulling money out of the ETFs, forcing BlackRock to sell Bitcoin to meet redemption requests.
- Technical Analysis:
  - Weekly Timeframe: The "super chain" indicator remains in the red, signaling a larger correction or bearish market. A massive bearish divergence is still technically active.
  - Daily Timeframe: Bitcoin has broken below key support levels around $85,000-$86,000 and then below $81,000. The next major support lies between $74,000 and $76,000, based on previous lows.
  - Oversold Conditions: The daily Bitcoin RSI is hitting extreme oversold levels, which historically has led to short-term relief bounces or sideways consolidation, but not necessarily a definitive bottom.
  - Fractal Repetition: Current price action is mirroring patterns seen in March-April 2022, suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend.
  - Liquidity: A significant area of liquidity is building below the price around $72,000-$72,600, acting as a potential magnet for price.
- Trading Opportunities/Positions: Josh is not currently in a Bitcoin trade but has previously shorted XRP.
- Short-Term Move Expectation: Josh anticipates a likely short-term relief bounce in the coming days or over the next week or two due to Bitcoin hitting major support and extreme oversold conditions on the daily RSI. Resistance levels to watch for if a bounce occurs are around $80,000-$81,000 and potentially $84,000-$86,000.
Ethereum (ETH):
- Price Action: Continuing its downward trend, rejecting the Fibonacci level around $3,040-$3,050 and breaking below the previous support at $2,600.
- Key Support: Currently testing a crucial Fibonacci support area between $2,150 and $2,250.
- Oversold Conditions: The daily Ethereum RSI is also hitting oversold levels, suggesting a potential for a short-term relief bounce.
- 3-Day Timeframe: A potential massive bullish divergence is forming on the 3-day chart, with lower lows in price and slightly higher lows in the RSI. This divergence is not yet confirmed but could lead to further short-term relief if support around $2,200-$2,400 holds.
- Major Downside Target: If support between $2,200-$2,400 breaks, the next significant support is between $1,500 and $1,600, which could represent a 27% drop.
- Short-Term Move Expectation: A slight relief bounce is likely in the coming days or weeks if the support around $2,150-$2,250 holds and the potential bullish divergence on the 3-day chart confirms.
XRP:
- Breakdown: XRP has broken below crucial support levels, including $0.180, and is heading towards lower targets.
- Technical Analysis:
  - Weekly Timeframe: A massive bearish divergence is still active, with higher highs in price and lower highs in the RSI. This pattern has been warned about for months. The price structure looks very bearish, mirroring the breakdown seen before the 2022 bear market.
  - Daily Timeframe: A lower low has been formed in the RSI, invalidating any potential bullish divergence that was forming. XRP has hit oversold levels for the first time since October 2025.
- Support Levels:
  - Current support around $0.160 has been hit.
  - Next significant support is between $0.130 and $0.140.
  - If $0.130 breaks, the next major target is around $0.090 (below $1).
- Trading Strategy/Position: Josh is currently in a short position on XRP and has doubled down on it. He views this as an opportunity to profit from the bearish price action. He has realized some profit and has a significant unrealized profit.
- Short-Term Move Expectation: A short-term bounce is possible due to hitting oversold conditions on the daily XRP RSI. Josh may take a small portion of profits if this relief bounce occurs but plans to remain in the short position, potentially adding more if the price continues to dump. He will look to take profits at support levels but not close the entire trade.
Solana (SOL):
- Price Action: Continuing its downward trend, testing previous lows from April 2025.
- Support Levels: Broke below support around $117-$118. The next support is around $100, with a significant low at $95.
- Expectation: Similar price action to Bitcoin and Ethereum is expected, with a potential for a slight short-term relief followed by more bearish price action in the coming months.
Chainlink (LINK):
- Support: Running into significant support between $9.50 and $10.
- Bearish Scenario: A break below $9.50 would be very bearish, potentially leading to a move towards $8-$8.50.
- Head and Shoulders Pattern: A break below $9.50 could confirm a massive multi-year head and shoulders pattern, which could lead to a significant crash towards $5 (a 40-50% drop from current prices).
- Shorting Opportunity: If the breakdown confirms, it presents a potential massive opportunity to short towards lower targets.
- Short-Term Move Expectation: Similar to Bitcoin, Chainlink could see a short-term relief if Bitcoin experiences a bounce.
Altcoins: Generally underperforming Bitcoin, with no expectation of an "altcoin season." Major altcoins are expected to follow Bitcoin's price action.

Important Insights:

Repeat History: Josh strongly emphasizes that Bitcoin is repeating historical price patterns, particularly referencing the 2022 bear market.
Shorting Opportunities: He highlights that significant profits can be made even in a bearish market by utilizing short positions, as demonstrated by his XRP trade.
Short-Term Relief vs. Long-Term Trend: While anticipating short-term bounces due to oversold conditions, Josh cautions against being fooled by these reliefs, as the larger, multi-month bearish trend is still dominant.
Liquidity as a Magnet: The presence of significant liquidity pools below current price levels is identified as a key factor that can draw prices lower.
Bearish Divergences are Key: Josh consistently points to bearish divergences on various timeframes as strong indicators of impending price drops.
Confirmation is Crucial: He stresses the importance of waiting for confirmations of price patterns (e.g., candle closes, divergence confirmation) before making trading decisions.

Trading Opportunities and Trades Made:

XRP Short Position: Josh is actively shorting XRP. He has doubled down on his position, which is currently around a $100,000 XRP short position. He has realized some profit and has a significant unrealized profit of approximately $7,000 USDT in one day.
XRP Profit-Taking Strategy: He plans to take small amounts of profit at support levels like $0.130-$0.140 and potentially $0.090, but not close the entire trade. He may add to his short position if there's a further dump.
Potential Chainlink Short: If the bearish head and shoulders pattern on Chainlink confirms below $9.50, it presents a potential massive opportunity to short towards $5.

Possibility for Short-Term

📈 Progressive Summary

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Overall Market Evaluation by Josh

Josh's current market evaluation is overwhelmingly bearish, with a strong emphasis on Bitcoin repeating historical patterns that suggest further significant downside. He highlights that while he is currently making profits through short positions, the overall trend is downward. The recent net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, particularly from BlackRock, are seen as a bearish catalyst contributing to selling pressure. Josh believes that current price action mirrors historical bearish periods, such as April 2022, and warns against being fooled by potential short-term relief rallies.

Key Points and Main Topics Discussed

Bitcoin Analysis:
- Consistent Bearish Trend: The weekly chart continues to show a red "super chain" indicator and an active, uninvalidated massive bearish divergence, signaling a larger correction or bearish market.
- Breakdown Below Key Support: Bitcoin has broken below the critical support level of $85,000-$86,000, confirming previous bearish predictions. It has also breached the candle wick low of November 2025 (around $81,000) and is now trading below $80,000.
- New Support Levels Identified: The next significant support levels are identified between $74,000 and $76,000, based on previous lows from March and April 2025.
- Oversold Conditions: The daily Bitcoin RSI is hitting extreme oversold levels, similar to previous instances that preceded local lows. This suggests a potential for a short-term relief bounce or sideways consolidation in the coming days or weeks, but not necessarily a trend reversal.
- Resistance Levels: If a bounce occurs, resistance is expected around $80,000-$81,000, with a more significant resistance zone at $84,000 and closer to $86,000.
- Historical Fractal Playing Out: The current price action is described as perfectly mirroring the pattern observed in March-April 2022, especially after failing to hold the $92,000-$94,000 resistance.
- Liquidity Target: A major area of liquidity is building below the current price, around $72,000 to $72,600, acting as a potential magnet for price movement in the future, though not necessarily in the immediate short term.
- 8-Hour Chart Breakdown: Bitcoin confirmed a break below the $82,000-$83,000 support on the 8-hour chart, leading to further downside towards the current support levels.
Ethereum Analysis:
- Continued Dump and Rejection: Ethereum has continued its downward trend, with a near-perfect rejection from the Fibonacci level around $3,040-$3,050, which has now become resistance.
- Break Below Previous Support: ETH has broken below the retracement level that previously acted as support just above $2.6K.
- New Support Zone: The price has reached the Fibonacci support area between approximately $2,150 and $2,250, which has historically shown significant support since 2023.
- Daily RSI Oversold: Similar to Bitcoin, the daily Ethereum RSI is oversold, suggesting a potential for short-term relief in the coming days or weeks, but not a trend reversal.
- Potential 3-Day Bullish Divergence: A potential bullish divergence is forming on the 3-day chart, with lower lows in price and higher lows in the RSI. This is not yet confirmed but could lead to further relief if it solidifies and the support zone ($2.2K-$2.4K) holds.
- Major Downside Target: If the $2.2K-$2.4K support breaks, the next massive support level is between $1,500 and $1,600, representing a potential ~30% crash from the $2.2K level.
XRP Analysis:
- Confirmed Breakdown: XRP has broken below the $1.80 crucial support level, confirming previous warnings and leading to further downside.
- Massive Weekly Bearish Divergence: The long-standing massive bearish divergence on the weekly chart remains active, indicating significant downside potential.
- Previous Crash Prediction: Josh reiterates his prediction of a multi-month crash for XRP, with targets of $1.60 (already hit), then $1.30-$1.40. A break below $1.30 could lead to prices below $1.
- Bearish Price Structure: The price structure for XRP is described as very bearish, mirroring the breakdown seen entering the 2022 bear market.
- Daily RSI Lower Low: XRP has formed a lower low in the daily RSI, invalidating any potential bullish divergence that was previously forming.
- Daily RSI Oversold: The daily XRP RSI has hit oversold levels for the first time since October 2025, which historically has led to short-term bounces.
- Trading Strategy: Josh is currently in a short position on XRP, having doubled down on his initial trade. He has taken some partial profits and plans to reduce his position size at upcoming support levels ($1.60, $1.30-$1.40) rather than closing the entire trade. He sees potential for further downside towards $0.90 if the $1.30 level breaks.
Solana Analysis:
- Following Bitcoin's Trend: Solana is continuing its downward trend, mirroring Bitcoin and Ethereum.
- Testing Previous Lows: The price is testing previous lows from April 2025.
- Support Breakdowns: Solana has broken below the $117-$118 support and is heading towards the $100 psychological level. A break below $105 with a 2-day candle close could lead to further downside towards $95.
- Short-Term Relief Expected: Similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum, Solana is expected to experience a slight short-term relief bounce, followed by potentially more bearish price action in the coming months.
- Invalidated Bullish Divergence: A previously forming bullish divergence on the 6-hour chart was invalidated quickly by breaking below previous lows in both price and RSI.
Chainlink Analysis:
- Approaching Support: Chainlink is approaching a significant support area between $9.50 and $10.
- Crucial Support Level: A break below $9.50 is critical, as it could lead to a move towards $8-$8.50.
- Potential Head and Shoulders Pattern: A break below $9.50 on a weekly candle close could confirm a massive multi-year bearish head and shoulders pattern, potentially leading to a drop to $5.
- Shorting Opportunity: If the breakdown confirms, it presents a potential shorting opportunity for traders, targeting lower price levels.
- Short-Term Relief Possible: Similar to other altcoins, Chainlink might see a short-term relief bounce if Bitcoin experiences one.
Bitcoin Dominance:
- Slight Short-Term Bullish Move: Bitcoin dominance is experiencing a slight bullish move in the short term, indicating that altcoins are currently underperforming Bitcoin.
- Neutral Larger Trend: The larger trend for Bitcoin dominance remains neutral, suggesting that major altcoins will generally perform similarly to Bitcoin on average.
- No Altcoin Season Expected: Josh explicitly states that an altcoin season is not expected at this time.
Bitcoin ETF Flows:
- Net Outflows: Friday saw significant net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, with BlackRock experiencing its worst day historically for its Spot Bitcoin ETF.
- Bearish Impact: These outflows are contributing to selling pressure on Bitcoin.

Important Insights

Repeating History is Key: Josh consistently emphasizes that Bitcoin's current price action is a direct repetition of historical bearish patterns, particularly from 2022, and this is the primary driver of his bearish outlook.
Fakeouts and Breakdowns: The failure of Bitcoin to hold key resistance levels after initial moves is interpreted as a fakeout, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
Short-Term Relief vs. Long-Term Trend: While oversold conditions and support levels suggest potential short-term bounces, these are not seen as trend reversals. The larger bearish trend is expected to persist.
Liquidity as a Magnet: The build-up of liquidity below current price levels is a significant