BITCOIN & ALTCOINS: This Could Get UGLY (Prepare Now)!!! - Bitcoin News Today, Ethereum & Altcoins

📝 Video Summary

Overall Market Evaluation by Josh

Josh's overall evaluation of the market is predominantly bearish, especially in the short to medium term. He emphasizes that while there might be short-term bounces or sideways consolidation, the larger multi-month trends for Bitcoin and most altcoins remain bearish. He notes that the US stock market is also struggling at resistance, which is a significant drag on the crypto market. He advises against expecting strong bullish momentum in the crypto space as long as the stock market remains under pressure.

Key Points and Main Topics Discussed

US Stock Market Rejection: The S&P 500 index experienced a significant rejection from its all-time highs, indicating short-term weakness. This struggle at resistance is expected to negatively impact Bitcoin and crypto.
Bitcoin's Bearish Trend: On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin's super trend indicator remains red, signaling a larger bearish market. A significant bearish divergence on the weekly chart is still active and unconfirmed for invalidation. While the weekly RSI is oversold, Josh cautions that this is not necessarily a bottom signal, citing the mid-2022 oversold signal which did not mark the end of the bear market.
Bitcoin Short-Term Outlook:
- Bitcoin is currently rejecting from resistance around $72,000.
- Support levels to watch are around $60,000 and potentially $53,000 to $56,000 if the price drops further.
- The 3-day Bitcoin RSI is nearing oversold, suggesting potential for sideways consolidation between support and resistance ($60,000 - $72,000) in the coming days or weeks.
- On the 2-hour timeframe, Bitcoin is approaching oversold conditions, indicating some room for further downside before a short-term reset.
- Liquidity sweeps are occurring below the price, specifically around $67,000 and just above $66,000.
- A major liquidity level to watch on the weekly heatmap is around $72.4K.
- Josh expects Bitcoin to struggle in the short term (next 1-2 days) but likely remain above $60,000 in the coming days or weeks, consolidating within the $60,000-$72,000 range.
Ethereum's Bearish Outlook:
- Ethereum is rejecting from resistance around $2,150 to $2,250.
- The next key support level to watch is around $1,800 (1.8K).
- A confirmed daily close below $1,800 could lead to a move towards $1,500-$1,600.
- The daily Ethereum RSI is entering oversold territory, suggesting a potential short-term bounce within the next day or so, possibly holding above $1,800.
- However, the larger trend for Ethereum remains bearish.
XRP's Critical Support Test:
- XRP is testing a crucial Fibonacci support area between $0.130 and $0.140.
- A confirmed break below $0.130, especially with weekly or multiple daily closes below it, could lead to a drop towards $0.113 and then $0.90-$1.00.
- A confirmed break below $0.130 presents a potential short trading opportunity.
- The 3-day XRP RSI is oversold, suggesting a potential for short-term relief (sideways or slight bullish movement) in the coming days or weeks, but not a trend reversal.
Solana's Support Retest:
- Solana is retesting a critical support area between $75 and $80.
- A break below $75 with confirmation could lead to a drop towards the local low of around $68, and potentially much lower if that fails to hold.
- The 3-day Solana RSI is oversold, indicating a potential for relief, which could be choppy sideways action rather than significant bullish moves.
- The larger trend for Solana remains bearish.
Chainlink's Support Test and Potential Break:
- Chainlink is retesting support between $8.00 and $8.50, with the low end around $7.90.
- The 3-day Chainlink RSI is entering oversold territory, suggesting a potential for short-term relief or choppy sideways action.
- A confirmed break below $7.90-$8.00 could lead to a significant drop towards the $5.00-$5.50 area, presenting a possible trading opportunity for a short position.
- The larger trend for Chainlink is bearish.
Bitcoin Dominance: Bitcoin dominance is trading sideways, suggesting that altcoins will likely perform similarly to Bitcoin.

Important Insights

Stock Market Correlation: The performance of the US stock market is a key driver for the crypto market, and its current struggle at resistance is a significant bearish signal for crypto.
Oversold ≠ Bottom: Josh repeatedly emphasizes that oversold RSI signals are not definitive bottom indicators. They can lead to short-term relief rallies within a larger downtrend.
Timeframes Matter: It's crucial to understand the difference between short-term and long-term trends. While short-term consolidation or bounces are possible, the larger multi-month bearish trends are still in play for most cryptocurrencies.
Liquidity Sweeps: The market is actively sweeping liquidity, indicating potential for further price movements to target these areas.
Trading Opportunities: Josh highlights specific levels where confirmed breaks could present short trading opportunities, particularly for XRP and Chainlink.

Trading Opportunities and Positions

XRP Short Opportunity: If XRP confirms a break below $0.130, especially with multiple daily closes below this level and failure to reclaim it, Josh sees this as a potential trading opportunity to open a short position targeting $0.113 and then $0.90-$1.00.
Chainlink Short Opportunity: If Chainlink confirms a break below $7.90-$8.00 and fails to get back above it, Josh points this out as a potential trading opportunity to short, targeting the $5.00-$5.50 area.

Short-Term Market Moves (Trading Opportunities)

Josh suggests that in the immediate short term (next 1-2 days), Bitcoin is likely to struggle and consolidate sideways between $60,000 and $72,000, with potential for further downside before a short-term oversold reset. He also anticipates potential short-term bounces for Ethereum and XRP due to their RSI levels nearing or entering oversold territory. However, these are viewed as temporary reliefs within larger bearish trends.

Alerts to Be Aware Of

BTCUSDT;{{price}} < 72000;Josh: Rejection from resistance, potential for sideways consolidation or further downside in the short term.
BTCUSDT;{{price}} < 60000;Josh: Support level to watch. If broken, could see further downside.
ETHUSDT;{{price}} < 2150;Josh: Rejection from resistance.
ETHUSDT;{{price}} < 1800;Josh: Key support level. A confirmed break below could lead to significant downside.
XRPUSDT;{{price}} < 0.130;Josh: Critical support break. Potential short opportunity towards 0.113 and lower.
SOLUSDT;{{price}} < 75;Josh: Support level. A confirmed break could lead to further downside.
LINKUSDT;{{price}} < 7.90;Josh: Support break. Potential short opportunity towards 5.00-5.50.

📈 Progressive Summary

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Overall Market Evaluation by Josh

Josh's current market evaluation indicates a significant shift from his previous analysis. While he previously suggested a potential short-term relief rally, he now observes a confirmed rejection from key resistance levels for both Bitcoin and the US stock market. This suggests a short-term bearish sentiment is taking hold, with Bitcoin specifically sweeping liquidity at the lows and potentially breaking below important support. The overall outlook for the crypto market, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, is cautious, with a strong emphasis on the ongoing larger bearish trends.

Main Topics Discussed

Rejection of US stock market (S&P 500) from all-time highs.
Bitcoin's confirmed rejection from resistance around $72,000.
Bitcoin sweeping liquidity at lower price levels.
XRP testing and potentially breaking below a critical support level.
The continued dominance of larger bearish trends across the crypto market.
Analysis of Bitcoin's weekly and 3-day timeframes, including RSI oversold conditions and bearish divergence.
Ethereum's rejection from resistance and potential retest of support levels.
XRP's critical support level and potential shorting opportunity.
Solana and Chainlink's current support retests and oversold RSI signals.
The sideways movement of Bitcoin dominance, implying altcoins will follow Bitcoin's lead.

Key Points and Important Insights

Bitcoin

Shift in Sentiment: Unlike the previous analysis that anticipated a short-term relief rally, Josh now confirms a rejection from the resistance around $72,000. This signals a more immediate bearish movement.
Liquidity Sweep: Bitcoin is currently sweeping liquidity at lower levels, specifically mentioning around $67,000 and just above $66,000. This is seen as a short-term downward move.
Weekly Bearish Trend: The weekly Bitcoin chart continues to show a strong bearish trend, with the super trend indicator in red and an active weekly bearish divergence that has not been invalidated. This indicates a multi-month bearish move is still in play.
Weekly RSI Oversold: While the weekly RSI is oversold (first time since mid-2022), Josh reiterates that this is not necessarily a bottom signal, as seen in mid-2022 where a relief rally was followed by further downside.
3-Day Chart Analysis: Bitcoin is rejecting from the resistance around $72,000. Support is expected at $60,000 and potentially between $53,000-$56,000. The 3-day RSI is nearing oversold territory again, suggesting potential for sideways consolidation between support and resistance in the coming days or weeks.
2-Hour Chart Analysis: The price is rejecting from resistance at $71.6K-$71.7K. The 2-hour RSI is approaching oversold, indicating some room for further downside in the short term before a potential reset.
Liquidity Levels to Watch: A significant level of liquidity remains above current prices at $72.4K.
Short-Term Outlook: Josh anticipates struggle in the short term (next 1-2 days) due to the stock market's weakness and Bitcoin's rejection from resistance. He expects Bitcoin to remain above $60,000 for the coming days or weeks, potentially trading in a range between $60,000 and $72,000, similar to the price action seen in late 2025.

Ethereum (ETH)

Rejection from Resistance: ETH is experiencing a strong rejection from the resistance zone between $2,150 and $2,250, which was previously a significant support area.
Potential Downtrend: The price is now heading towards retesting the crucial Fibonacci support level at around $1,800 ($1.8K). A confirmed daily candle close below $1,800 could lead to a further move down towards $1,500-$1,600.
3-Day RSI: The 3-day ETH RSI is very close to entering oversold territory, indicating a potential for a short-term bounce or relief.
Daily RSI: The daily ETH RSI is now entering oversold territory, suggesting a potential for a slight bounce within the next day or so, possibly holding above $1.8K.
Larger Bearish Trend: Despite potential short-term bounces, ETH remains firmly within a larger bearish trend.

XRP

Critical Support Testing: XRP is testing a crucial Fibonacci support area between $1.30 and $1.40.
Potential Breakdown: A confirmed break below $1.30, especially with daily or weekly candle closes below this level, could lead to a significant drop towards the next support at $1.13, and potentially towards $0.90-$1.00.
Shorting Opportunity: Josh identifies a potential shorting opportunity if XRP confirms a break below $1.30, targeting the lower support levels. This is presented as a personal consideration, not financial advice.
3-Day RSI Oversold: The 3-day XRP RSI is oversold for the first time since July 2024. Historically, this has led to a decent relief rally over the following days and weeks.
Short-Term Relief Expected: A slight relief or choppy sideways price action is expected in the next few days to two weeks, but this is not seen as a bottom signal or a reversal of the larger bearish trend.

Solana (SOL) and Chainlink (LINK)

Solana: SOL is retesting the important support area between $75-$80. A break below $75 with confirmation could lead to a move towards the local low of $68. If this fails, much lower price targets are possible. The 3-day SOL RSI is oversold, suggesting a potential for relief or choppy sideways action, but the larger bearish trend remains.
Chainlink: LINK is also within a longer-term bearish trend. The 3-day LINK RSI is entering oversold territory. The price is retesting support between $8-$8.50, with a low end around $7.90. A confirmed break below $7.90-$8 could lead to a significant drop towards the $5-$5.50 area. This breakdown below $7.90-$8 is also considered a potential trading opportunity for a short position.
Correlation with Bitcoin: Both SOL and LINK are expected to follow Bitcoin's lead. If Bitcoin struggles in the short term but then shows a slight bounce, expect similar action for these altcoins.

Bitcoin Dominance

Sideways Movement: Bitcoin dominance continues to move sideways, indicating that major altcoins will generally perform similarly to Bitcoin.

Trading Opportunities and Positions

Josh highlights potential trading opportunities based on his analysis:

XRP Short Position: If XRP confirms a break below $1.30 (with confirmation, e.g., daily candle closes), Josh is considering opening a short position with targets at $1.13 and potentially $0.90-$1.00.
Chainlink Short Position: If Chainlink confirms a break below $7.90-$8.00 (with confirmation), Josh sees a potential shorting opportunity targeting the $5-$5.50 support area.
General Altcoin Strategy: Given that Bitcoin is expected to remain in a sideways consolidation phase or experience a slight bounce after its current pullback, and with many altcoins' RSIs entering or approaching oversold, there's a potential opportunity to look for selected altcoins that might lag behind Bitcoin's initial moves. This implies a strategy of buying into potential breakouts or bounces in altcoins once Bitcoin shows signs of stabilization or a modest upward move. The exact price levels for these altcoin entries are not specified but would likely align with their respective support levels mentioned in the analysis.

Alerts to Be Aware Of

BTCUSDT;{{price}} < 72000;Josh: Confirmed rejection from resistance around 72000. Expect struggle and potential downside.
BTCUSDT;{{price}} < 67000;Josh: Watch for potential liquidity sweep below 67000.
ETHUSDT;{{price}} < 2150;Josh: Rejection from resistance at 2150-2250.
ETHUSDT;{{price}} < 1800;Josh: Critical support at 1.8K. A confirmed daily close below this level could lead to 1.5K-1.6K.
XRPUSDT;{{price