BITCOIN & ALTCOINS: This Could Get UGLY (Prepare Now)!!! - Bitcoin News Today, Ethereum & Altcoins

📝 Video Summary

Overall Market Evaluation by Josh

Josh's overall market evaluation is bearish in the short to medium term, with a focus on potential short-term bounces or sideways consolidation within a larger downtrend. He emphasizes that while oversold conditions might lead to temporary relief, they do not signal the end of the bear market. The performance of the US stock market, particularly the S&P 500, is a significant factor influencing the crypto market. As long as the stock market struggles with resistance, Josh expects similar struggles for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

Key Points and Main Topics Discussed

US Stock Market Rejection: The S&P 500 experienced a significant rejection from a major resistance area, opening near all-time highs but subsequently falling over 1%. This struggle at resistance is expected to create headwinds for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market in the short term. A retest of this resistance is considered a likely scenario.
Bitcoin's Weekly Outlook: The weekly super trend indicator remains red, signaling a larger bearish market. A significant bearish divergence is still active and unconfirmed for invalidation. This indicates weakness and bearish price action on larger timeframes, suggesting a multi-month bearish move is still in play. While the weekly RSI is oversold, Josh cautions that this is not necessarily a bottom signal, citing the mid-2022 oversold RSI which preceded further price declines.
Bitcoin's 3-Day Chart Analysis: Bitcoin is finding support around the $60,000 local low and expects further support between $53,000 and $56,000. Resistance is firmly established around $72,000, with the price rejecting from this level. The 3-day RSI is nearing oversold territory, suggesting potential for sideways consolidation between support and resistance in the coming days or weeks.
Bitcoin's Short-Term (2-Hour) Chart: The price is rejecting from resistance near $71.6K - $71.7K. The 2-hour RSI is approaching oversold, indicating some room for further downside before an oversold signal is confirmed. This pullback is attributed to rejection from resistance, stock market struggles, and sweeping of short-term liquidity below $67,000 and just above $66,000. A major liquidity level remains at $72.4K on the weekly heatmap.
Bitcoin's Expected Short-Term Move: Josh anticipates Bitcoin to struggle in the next 1-2 days, potentially remaining above $60,000 and trading within the range of $60,000 to $72,000. This sideways consolidation is compared to the price action seen in late November/early December, but within the context of a larger multi-month bearish trend.
Bitcoin Dominance: Bitcoin dominance is trading sideways, suggesting that major altcoins will likely perform similarly to Bitcoin.
Ethereum (ETH) Analysis: ETH is rejecting from resistance around $2,150 - $2,250. The daily RSI is entering oversold territory, while the 3-day RSI is close to oversold. A retest of the Fibonacci support at around $1,800 ($1.8K) is likely. A daily close below $1.8K could lead to a drop towards $1,500 - $1,600. A short-term bounce is expected within the next day or so, potentially holding above $1.8K. However, the larger trend for ETH remains bearish.
XRP Analysis: XRP is testing a crucial Fibonacci support between $1.30 and $1.40. A confirmed break below $1.30, especially a weekly close below this level, could lead to a decline towards $1.13, and then to $0.90 - $1.00. The 3-day XRP RSI has hit oversold for the first time since July 2024, suggesting a potential for a short-term relief bounce or choppy sideways action in the coming days or weeks. However, the overall trend for XRP is still bearish.
Solana (SOL) Analysis: SOL is retesting the support area between $75 and $80. A break below $75 with confirmation could lead to a drop to the local low of around $68, and potentially lower if that fails. The 3-day SOL RSI is oversold, indicating a potential for further relief, which could be choppy sideways action or a slight bullish relief, but not necessarily a bullish trend reversal. The larger trend for SOL remains bearish.
Chainlink (LINK) Analysis: LINK is within a longer-term bearish trend and is retesting support between $8.00 and $8.50, with the low end around $7.90. The 3-day LINK RSI is entering oversold territory. A short-term relief or choppy sideways action is possible in the next few days. A confirmed break below $7.90 - $8.00 could lead to a significant drop towards the $5.00 - $5.50 area.

Important Insights

Interconnectedness of Markets: The strong correlation between the US stock market and the crypto market is highlighted. Struggles in traditional markets directly impact crypto sentiment and price action.
Oversold Not Necessarily Bottom: A recurring theme is that oversold RSI signals indicate a potential for short-term bounces or relief but do not confirm the end of a bearish trend or a market bottom.
Timeframes Matter: Josh consistently distinguishes between short-term trading opportunities and long-term bearish trends. What might appear as a bullish move in the short term does not negate the larger bearish outlook.
Liquidity Sweeps: The concept of sweeping liquidity below price levels is presented as a reason for short-term pullbacks.
Altcoin Performance Linked to Bitcoin: Bitcoin dominance's sideways movement suggests that altcoins will largely mirror Bitcoin's price action.

Trading Opportunities and Positions

XRP Shorting Opportunity: If XRP confirms a break below $1.30, especially with a weekly candle close below this level and failure to reclaim it, Josh sees a potential trading opportunity to initiate a short position targeting $1.13 and then $0.90 - $1.00.
Chainlink Shorting Opportunity: If Chainlink confirms a break below $7.90 - $8.00 and fails to get back above it, Josh points out a potential trading opportunity for a short position targeting the $5.00 - $5.50 area.

Short-Term Move Possibilities

Josh anticipates that over the next 1-2 days, Bitcoin will likely struggle and trade sideways within the $60,000 to $72,000 range, bouncing between support and resistance. This is due to the rejection from resistance and continued struggles in the stock market. For Ethereum, a short-term bounce is expected within the next day or so, potentially holding above $1.8K, driven by the daily RSI entering oversold. XRP and Chainlink are also expected to see some short-term relief or choppy sideways action in the coming days or weeks due to their respective RSI indicators entering oversold territory.

Alerts to Be Aware Of

BTCUSDT;{{price}} < 60000;Josh: Watching for a break below 60000 as a potential confirmation of further downside.
BTCUSDT;{{price}} > 72000;Josh: Watching for a breakout above 72000 as a potential shift in short-term momentum.
ETHUSDT;{{price}} < 1800;Josh: Critical support at 1800. A confirmed daily close below this level could lead to a significant drop.
ETHUSDT;{{price}} > 2150;Josh: Watching for a reclaim of 2150 as a sign of short-term strength.
XRPUSDT;{{price}} < 130;Josh: Break below 130 is a key bearish signal, potentially initiating a short trade.
XRPUSDT;{{price}} > 140;Josh: Watching for a reclaim of 140 as a sign of short-term stabilization.
SOLUSDT;{{price}} < 75;Josh: Break below 75 could signal further downside for Solana.
SOLUSDT;{{price}} > 80;Josh: Watching for a reclaim of the 80 level for potential short-term support.
LINKUSDT;{{price}} < 790;Josh: Break below 7.90 could be a significant bearish signal for Chainlink.
LINKUSDT;{{price}} > 850;Josh: Watching for a reclaim of the 8.50 level for potential short-term support.

📈 Progressive Summary

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Overall Market Evaluation by Josh

Josh's current market evaluation indicates a confirmed rejection from significant resistance levels for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, mirroring the US stock market's struggle at its highs. This suggests continued short-term weakness and a lack of strong bullish momentum in the crypto space. While short-term relief rallies or sideways consolidation are possible, the overarching multi-month bearish trend remains in play for most cryptocurrencies.

Key Points and Main Topics Discussed

US Stock Market Rejection: The S&P 500 experienced a sharp rejection from its all-time highs, signaling continued resistance and a bearish short-term outlook for traditional markets, which directly impacts crypto sentiment.
Bitcoin's Bearish Trend Confirmation:
- The weekly super trend indicator remains red, confirming a larger bearish market trend.
- The active bearish divergence on the weekly chart has not been invalidated, contributing to overall weakness.
- While the weekly RSI is oversold, Josh reiterates that this is not a definitive bottom signal, referencing the mid-2022 oversold signal which preceded further downside.
Bitcoin Short-Term Outlook:
- Bitcoin is currently rejecting from resistance around $71.6K - $71.7K, close to the $72,000 level.
- Key support levels remain at $60,000, with a significant area between $53,000 and $56,000 if further downside occurs.
- The 3-day Bitcoin RSI is nearing oversold conditions, suggesting potential for sideways consolidation between $60,000 and $72,000 in the coming days or weeks.
- The 2-hour Bitcoin RSI is approaching oversold, indicating some room for further downside before a short-term reset.
- Recent price action has swept liquidity below the price, specifically around $67,000 and just above $66,000.
- A major liquidity level to watch on the weekly heatmap is around $72.4K.
- Josh expects Bitcoin to struggle in the short term (next 1-2 days), likely remaining above $60,000 and consolidating within the $60,000-$72,000 range, similar to the price action seen in late 2025.
Ethereum's Bearish Outlook:
- ETH is rejecting from strong resistance between $2,150 and $2,250, a previous significant support area now acting as resistance.
- The next crucial support level to watch is around $1,800 (1.8K).
- A confirmed daily close below $1,800 could lead to a significant drop towards the $1,500-$1,600 area.
- The 3-day ETH RSI is close to oversold, and the daily RSI is entering oversold territory, suggesting a potential for a short-term bounce within the next day or so, possibly holding above $1,800.
- However, the larger trend for Ethereum remains bearish.
XRP's Critical Support Test and Potential Break:
- XRP is testing a crucial Fibonacci support area between $0.130 and $0.140.
- A confirmed break below $0.130, especially with multiple daily closes below this level and failure to reclaim it, would be a strong bearish signal.
- Such a break could lead to a drop towards the next support at $0.113 and then potentially to the $0.90-$1.00 area.
- The 3-day XRP RSI is oversold, indicating a potential for short-term relief (choppy sideways action or a slight bullish bounce) in the coming days or weeks, but not a trend reversal.
Solana's Support Retest:
- Solana is retesting a critical support area between $75 and $80, as previously anticipated.
- A confirmed break below $75 could lead to a drop towards the local low of around $68, with potential for much lower targets if that fails to hold.
- The 3-day Solana RSI is oversold for the first time in a long period, indicating a potential for relief, which could manifest as choppy sideways action.
- The larger trend for Solana remains bearish.
Chainlink's Support Test and Potential Break:
- Chainlink is retesting its important support area between $8.00 and $8.50, with the lower end around $7.90.
- The 3-day Chainlink RSI is entering oversold territory, suggesting a potential for short-term relief or choppy sideways action.
- A confirmed break below $7.90-$8.00 could lead to a significant drop towards the $5.00-$5.50 area.
- The larger trend for Chainlink is bearish.
Bitcoin Dominance: Bitcoin dominance is trading sideways, indicating that major altcoins will likely perform similarly to Bitcoin on average.

Important Insights

Stock Market Correlation Remains Key: The continued struggle of the US stock market at resistance is a significant bearish driver for the crypto market. Any strength in stocks could offer relief to crypto, but current weakness suggests the opposite.
Oversold Signals as Short-Term Indicators: Josh continues to emphasize that oversold RSI levels on shorter timeframes (3-day, daily) signal potential for short-term relief, bounces, or sideways consolidation, but not necessarily the end of a larger downtrend.
Focus on Timeframes: The distinction between short-term (days/weeks) and long-term (months) trends is crucial. While short-term relief is possible, the multi-month bearish trend remains the dominant narrative.
Liquidity Sweeps Continue: The market is actively sweeping liquidity, both above and below current price levels, indicating areas of interest for price discovery.
Confirmed Breaks are Crucial: Trading opportunities arise from confirmed breaks of key support or resistance levels, not from mere tests.

Trading Opportunities and Positions

XRP Short Opportunity: If XRP confirms a break below $0.130, especially with multiple daily closes below this level and failure to reclaim it, Josh sees this as a potential trading opportunity to open a short position targeting $0.113 and then $0.90-$1.00. This is a potential new short position if the support breaks.
Chainlink Short Opportunity: If Chainlink confirms a break below $7.90-$8.00 and fails to get back above it, Josh points this out as a potential trading opportunity to short, targeting the $5.00-$5.50 area. This is another potential short position if support breaks.

Short-Term Market Moves (Trading Opportunities)

Josh anticipates continued struggle and sideways consolidation for Bitcoin in the next 1-2 days within the $60,000-$72,000 range, with potential for further downside before a short-term oversold reset. He expects short-term bounces for Ethereum and XRP due to oversold RSI levels, but these are viewed as temporary reliefs within larger bearish trends. The key trading opportunities lie in confirmed breakdowns of key support levels for XRP and Chainlink.

Alerts to Be Aware Of

BTCUSDT;{{price}} < 71700;Josh: Rejection from resistance, potential for sideways consolidation or further downside in the short term.
BTCUSDT;{{price}} < 60000;Josh: Support level to watch. If broken, could see further downside.
ETHUSDT;{{price}} < 2150;Josh: Rejection from resistance.
ETHUSDT;{{price}} < 1800;Josh: Key support level. A confirmed break below could lead to significant downside.
XRPUSDT;{{price}} < 0.130;Josh: Critical support