📝 Video Summary
Market Overview
Josh believes the market is currently experiencing significant short-term volatility, primarily driven by announcements and subsequent reversals regarding tariffs on China by the US government. This has caused a "whiplash" effect, with initial bearish price action followed by a recovery in both the stock and crypto markets. He emphasizes that while there's a short-term bounce, the larger timeframes still suggest caution.
Bitcoin Analysis
Weekly Timeframe
- The Supertrend indicator remains green, signaling a bull market.
- A bearish divergence has been reconfirmed.
Daily Timeframe
- Similar fractal pattern to early 2024, with a potential for a bearish divergence, double bottom, breakout, and subsequent dump.
- He anticipates a break or relief from bearish price action.
4-Hour Timeframe
- Bitcoin is bouncing alongside the US stock market, reacting to bullish news.
- A sideways consolidation is likely.
Bitcoin Dominance
- Bitcoin dominance is currently rejecting a major resistance area (60.5% to 61%).
- Rejection of resistance is positive for altcoins in the short term.
- The bullish divergence is not yet invalidated, suggesting a potential for further bullish relief for altcoins.
Ethereum Analysis
3-Day Timeframe
- Ethereum avoided confirming a break below a key support area due to the recent news.
- The price is retesting the support area of 3.9K-4.1K.
8-Hour Timeframe
- Ethereum has broken above and retested an area as support (4050 - 4.1K).
- A bullish divergence is confirmed.
Daily Timeframe
- The bullish divergence is confirmed, increasing the likelihood of lacking bearish momentum, potentially leading to a larger sideways consolidation or further bullish relief in the coming weeks.
- Resistance levels to watch out for: 4250-4280, 4450-4500, and 4680-4720.
Solana Analysis
2-Day Timeframe
- Solana is experiencing a short-term bounce, mirroring the broader market.
- Currently testing a crucial area of resistance between 190 and 200.
- If a two-day candle closes above 200, a move towards 215-216 is expected, with a potential to reach 230.
- Expect support at roughly 170.
Funding Rates & Trading Strategy
- The arbitrage opportunity between Solana funding rates on Bybit (negative) and Bitfinex (positive) is closing.
- Josh is currently in a $2 million long position on Bybit and a $2 million short position on Bitfinex.
- His profit from funding fees is over $10,000 USD in about two days.
- Added margin to these positions to allow for more breathing room. He has a $1.4 million margin total.
- He will likely close this trade in the next day.
XRP Analysis
Weekly Timeframe
- Still has a massive bearish divergence to watch out for.
Daily Timeframe
- Following the market with a short-term bounce.
- Resistance is expected at 0.70-0.80.
- The larger trend for XRP is still bearish.
Chainlink Analysis
- Chainlink is also experiencing a short-term bounce.
- Support levels: 17.30-17.50 and 15.10-15.60.
- Resistance levels: 19-20.
- If a breakout above 20 is confirmed, a move towards 22 is expected.
- Still within a bearish trend.
Alerts to be Aware Of
- SOLUSDT;{{price}} > 200; Josh: Breakout to reclaim 200, next target is 215-216.
- ETHUSDT;{{price}} > 4250; Josh: Potential resistance.
- ETHUSDT;{{price}} > 4450; Josh: Potential resistance.
- ETHUSDT;{{price}} > 4680; Josh: Major resistance.
- XRPUSDT;{{price}} > 0.70; Josh: Potential resistance.
- LINKUSDT;{{price}} > 20; Josh: Potential breakout.
- LINKUSDT;{{price}} > 22; Josh: Next potential resistance.
📈 Progressive Summary
Market Overview and Crypto Analysis
Josh provides an updated analysis of the crypto market, emphasizing the impact of the US stock market's movements, particularly due to the recent announcements about tariffs. He notes a short-term bounce in both the stock and crypto markets, but cautions that the overall market remains potentially bearish. He highlights the importance of monitoring key support and resistance levels and the significance of the Bitcoin dominance in understanding altcoin performance. He also discusses his ongoing trading strategy, focusing on arbitrage opportunities related to funding rates.
Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis
- Weekly Chart: The Supertrend indicator remains green, suggesting a bull market. However, the weekly chart reconfirms a bearish divergence.
- Daily Chart: Continuing to display a similar fractal to the beginning of 2024, characterized by a bearish divergence, a double bottom, and a subsequent breakout followed by a major drop. Josh stresses that the pattern is not yet invalidated.
- 4-Hour Chart: Bitcoin is currently bouncing alongside the US stock market, due to the news about tariffs. It's bouncing from oversold territories in the RSI. Josh expects a break or relief from the bearish price action.
Bitcoin Dominance
- Bitcoin dominance is currently rejecting from the resistance between 60.5% to 61%.
- This rejection is providing bullish price action for altcoins.
Ethereum (ETH) Analysis
- 3-Day Chart: ETH has avoided confirming a break below a support area (between $3,900 and $4,100) due to the recent market news and the rejection in Bitcoin dominance.
- 8-Hour Chart: ETH has broken back above a key area on the price chart and is retesting it as support (around $4,050 to $4,100). A bullish divergence is confirmed on the daily time frame, indicating a potential lack of bearish momentum and the possibility of a sideways consolidation or further bullish relief.
- Resistance Levels: $4,250 - $4,280, $4,450 - $4,500, and $4,680 - $4,720.
Solana (SOL) Analysis
- 2-Day Chart: SOL is following the market with a short-term bounce, testing a crucial area between $190 and $200.
- Resistance: Potential resistance around the $190-$200 area.
- Support: Expecting a lot of support at roughly $170.
- Potential Breakout: If SOL confirms a two-day candle close back above $200, it's likely to move towards $215 - $216, and potentially $230.
XRP Analysis
- Weekly Chart: The massive bearish divergence is still valid.
- Daily Chart: Following the market with a short-term bounce.
- Resistance: Expecting resistance around $0.270 to $0.280.
- Overall Trend: The larger trend for XRP is still bearish, with lower highs and lower lows.
Chainlink (LINK) Analysis
- Daily Chart: Similar to XRP, LINK is experiencing a short-term bounce while still within a larger bearish price structure.
- Support: Expecting a lot of support at roughly $17.30 to $17.50, with more support between $15.10 and $15.60.
- Resistance: Testing an important area of resistance between $19 and $20.
- Potential Breakout: If LINK breaks above $20 and holds, it could move towards $22.
Funding Rates Arbitrage Opportunity
Josh's Solana (SOL) arbitrage opportunity is closing. He still has a long position on Bybit and a short position on Bitex, but the funding rates are normalizing. He has made over $10,000 USD in profits from funding fees in about two days.
Trading Opportunities and Strategy
Josh is closing his positions in his arbitrage strategy due to the normalization of funding rates. He has added more margin to the positions to give the trades more breathing room. However, he is still in the trading opportunity.
Alerts
- BTCUSDT;{{price}} < 107000;Josh: Major support. If lost, expect a larger pullback.
- ETHUSDT;{{price}} < 3900;Josh: If this level fails, a larger bearish move might occur.
- ETHUSDT;{{price}} < 3000;Josh: Next major target.
- SOLUSDT;{{price}} > 190;Josh: Crucial area for the bulls to reclaim.
- SOLUSDT;{{price}} < 170;Josh: Expect a move down towards 156, or 143-146.
- LINKUSDT;{{price}} < 1740-1750;Josh: Next area of support is sitting in between around 1520 to 1570.
- LINKUSDT;{{price}} > 1900-2000;Josh: Major area of resistance.
Analysis of Changes and Potential Strategies
Compared to the previous summaries, the key change is the impact of the US stock market and the news about tariffs. Josh's overall market outlook remains cautiously bearish, but he acknowledges the short-term bounce. The confirmation of a bullish divergence on the daily Ethereum chart is a new development, suggesting a potential shift away from bearish momentum for ETH. The arbitrage opportunity is closing, and Josh is closing the trades. Given the analysis, potential new trading opportunities could arise if:
- ETH continues its bullish relief and breaks above resistance levels.
- SOL breaks above $200 and reclaims the area.
- If altcoins like ETH and SOL show stronger bullish momentum than Bitcoin, there might be an opportunity to buy long.