📝 Video Summary
Market Evaluation
Josh's overall market evaluation suggests a mixed outlook. While the weekly Bitcoin chart still indicates a bull market, there are signs of weakening bullish momentum. Short-term, the market may experience choppy, sideways consolidation, with potential for short-term bullish and bearish price action. Josh emphasizes that the recent crash doesn't necessarily mean a major recovery is imminent, and a longer period of sideways movement is possible.
Bitcoin Analysis
Weekly Chart
- Key Point: Bearish divergence is present, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum.
Daily Chart
- Key Point: Potential for repeating patterns similar to the beginning of the year, with bearish divergences followed by pullbacks.
- Key Point: Expecting sideways consolidation in the short-term.
4-Hour Chart
- Key Point: Choppy, sideways price action expected.
- Support: Area between $108,000 and $107,000 is considered major support.
- Resistance/Trading Opportunity: If Bitcoin breaks above $116,000, a potential double bottom/W pattern could form, setting up a bullish target around $121,000 (4-5% potential move), but this is not yet confirmed.
Bitcoin Dominance
- Key Point: Bitcoin dominance is showing a slight bounce in the short term.
- Resistance: Rejection from resistance between 60.5% and 61% could provide short-term relief for altcoins.
Altcoin Analysis
Ethereum (ETH)
- 3-Day Chart: ETH is holding important support between $3,900 and $4,100.
- Daily Chart: Active bullish divergence confirmed, potentially leading to a bullish relief in the coming weeks.
- 8-Hour Chart: Perfect rejection from resistance between $4,250 and $4,280.
- Support: Retesting support between $4,060 and $4,100 may act as short-term resistance.
- Resistance: Main resistance between $4,250-$4,280, with further resistance at $4,450-$4,500 and $4,680-$4,720.
Solana (SOL)
- 2-Day Chart: Confirmed breakout above $190-$200 area. Retesting this area and finding support.
- 4-Hour Chart: Solana follows similar price action to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
- Short-Term Outlook: More bullish than bearish in the short term.
- Resistance: Expecting resistance around $210, $217-$218, and $230. $230 is a significant resistance level.
XRP
- Weekly Chart: XRP continues to show a bearish divergence.
- Support: Bounced from support around $0.230-$0.240 (golden pocket).
- Support: If a daily candle close below $0.230 is confirmed, the next major support is around $0.225.
- Resistance: Rejected from resistance around $0.263 (50% retracement)
- Resistance: Resistance at around $0.260-$0.270, then at $0.274, $0.288, and $0.310.
- Trend: Forming lower highs and lower lows, failing to break above resistance.
Chainlink (LINK)
- Trend: Within a larger bearish trend, forming lower highs and lower lows.
- Support: Support at $17.30-$17.50, with more support at $15.20-$15.60.
- Resistance: Rejected from resistance between $19 and $20.
- Resistance: Breakout above $20, targeting $22 as the next resistance.
Trading Strategy & Alert
Josh has closed his Solana (SOL) trading strategy, which involved arbitrage of funding rates across different exchanges (Bybit and Bitex). He made a profit of $10,000 USD from funding fees. He mentions that even at the time of the recording, there is still a very small arbitrage opportunity, although very small.
Alerts
- BTCUSDT;{{price}} > 116000;Josh: Breakout opportunity. Next target is 121000 (not yet confirmed).
- ETHUSDT;{{price}} > 4250;Josh: ETH rejected from resistance.
- SOLUSDT;{{price}} > 200;Josh: SOL confirmed breakout above 200.
- XRPUSDT;{{price}} < 0.230;Josh: Potential to fall down to 0.225
- LINKUSDT;{{price}} > 20;Josh: Next major point of resistance is $22
📈 Progressive Summary
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Market Overview
Josh maintains a cautious stance on the overall crypto market, acknowledging a continuing bull market indicated by the Supertrend indicator on the weekly Bitcoin chart. However, he highlights a loss of bullish momentum, suggesting a potential slowdown. He anticipates choppy sideways price action, with short-term bullish and bearish movements.
Bitcoin Analysis
Weekly Timeframe
- The Supertrend indicator remains green, signaling a bull market.
- A new bearish divergence has been reconfirmed, indicating a loss of bullish momentum.
Daily Timeframe
- Similar fractal pattern to early 2024, with potential for a bearish divergence.
- The price action is consolidating sideways.
- Support area: $108,000 (with slight variations).
4-Hour Timeframe
- Choppy sideways price action.
- Lows are expected to hold for the next few days.
Liquidation Heatmap
- Liquidity at $109,000 and $116,000.
- A breakout above $116,000 could lead to a W pattern formation, with a potential bullish target of $121,000 (4-5% move).
Bitcoin Dominance
- Slight bounce in the short term.
- Still playing out the bullish divergence.
- Resistance area: 60.5% - 61%. Rejection here could help altcoins.
Ethereum Analysis
3-Day Timeframe
- Holding the support area of $3,900 - $4,100.
- Has not confirmed a break to the downside.
Daily Timeframe
- Confirmed bullish divergence, indicating a potential bullish relief in the coming weeks.
- Expectations: choppy sideways price action or bullish price action.
8-Hour Timeframe
- Perfectly rejected from resistance area: $4,250 - $4,280.
- Currently retesting the $4,060 - $4,100 area, which could act as short-term resistance.
- Main resistance: $4,250 - $4,280.
- Next resistance: $4,450 - $4,500.
- Major resistance: $4,680 - $4,720.
Solana Analysis
2-Day Timeframe
- Confirmed breakout above the $190 - $200 area.
- Currently retesting this area and finding support.
4-Hour Timeframe
- Similar price action to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
- Expects more bullish relief.
- Resistance levels: $210, $217 - $218, and $230.
XRP Analysis
Weekly Timeframe
- Playing out a massive bearish divergence.
Daily Timeframe
- Bounced from the $0.230-$0.240 area.
- Resistance: $0.260-$0.270.
- If the price confirms a daily candle close below $0.230, the next support is around $2.00-$2.05.
Chainlink Analysis
- Larger bearish trend.
- Support: $17.30 - $17.50, and $15.20 - $15.60.
- Resistance: $19 - $20.
Trading Strategy and Opportunities
- Josh has closed his Solana (SOL) arbitrage trade, profiting $10,000 from funding fees.
- He suggests that trading opportunities can be found in short positions and other strategies like arbitrage to make money no matter the price.
Potential Trading Opportunities and Strategies
Based on Josh's analysis, several potential trading opportunities emerge:
- Bitcoin: Watch for a breakout above $116,000 to confirm a W pattern, which could lead to a 4-5% move.
- Ethereum: Expect a bullish relief in the coming days or weeks, possibly breaking above resistance levels ($4,250 - $4,280). Consider long positions on ETH if the bullish divergence continues to play out, with potential targets at $4,450 - $4,500 and $4,680 - $4,720.
- Solana: With the confirmed breakout above $190 - $200, Solana is expected to continue with bullish relief. Potential entry: retest of the $190 - $200 area. Targets: $210, $217 - $218, and $230.
- XRP: If XRP fails to reclaim $0.230, a short position could be considered.
- General: Consider short positions on altcoins if Bitcoin dominance increases after its rejection at the 60.5% - 61% resistance area.
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